Who called it?

The ledger: every prediction, scored against what happened

GLOVIZ does not try to out-forecast the institutions. It keeps their receipts. Every forecast that enters the database, from a weather model, a grid operator or the IMF, is stored with a timestamp, and when the outcome arrives the error is computed. The naive baseline, tomorrow equals today, is the honesty benchmark: a forecaster that cannot beat it is not adding information.

Forecast against outcome, the British gridNational Grid · 30 minutes · gCO2/kWh · the cleanest test bench in the catalogue

Source: National Grid ESO Carbon Intensity API

The scoreboard

Mean absolute error per predictor, lowest first. Rows appear as forecasts mature: a prediction can only be scored after its target time has passed.

Day-ahead power price DEEUR/MWh · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	185	8.644

Day-ahead power price DK1EUR/MWh · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	108	8.929

Day-ahead power price DK2EUR/MWh · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	130	8.468

Day-ahead power price NO2EUR/MWh · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	173	4.047

Day-ahead power price SE3EUR/MWh · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	179	7.959

Day-ahead power price SE4EUR/MWh · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	192	11.191

GDP per capita (Maddison) EGYintl-$ (2011) · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	5	0

Humidity Bangkok% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	87	5.885

Humidity Beijing% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	82	5.573

Humidity Berlin% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	85	4.094

Humidity Bogota% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	82	6.317

Humidity Buenos Aires% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	86	3.849

Humidity Cairo% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	44	2.25

Humidity Chicago% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	81	10.16

Humidity Delhi% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	69	5.13

Humidity Dubai% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	88	7.943

Humidity Istanbul% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	70	2.757

Humidity Johannesburg% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	44	4.977

Humidity Lagos% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	46	2.13

Humidity London% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	89	4.697

Humidity Los Angeles% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	44	9.682

Humidity Madrid% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	83	5.277

Humidity Mexico City% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	80	5.213

Humidity Moscow% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	40	2.425

Humidity Mumbai% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	64	2.266

Humidity Nairobi% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	42	3.048

Humidity New York% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	47	5.638

Humidity Oslo% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	94	3.957

Humidity Paris% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	79	4.861

Humidity Rome% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	2.952

Humidity Sao Paulo% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	46	2.304

Humidity Singapore% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	87	2.264

Humidity Stockholm% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	83	5.349

Humidity Sydney% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	136	3.779

Humidity Tokyo% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	45	3.2

Humidity Toronto% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	87	7.023

Humidity Warsaw% · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	83	5.06

Surface pressure BangkokhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	82	0.449

Surface pressure BeijinghPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	71	0.462

Surface pressure BerlinhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	0.346

Surface pressure BogotahPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	86	0.466

Surface pressure Buenos AireshPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	45	0.198

Surface pressure CairohPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	56	0.379

Surface pressure ChicagohPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	44	0.666

Surface pressure DelhihPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	0.752

Surface pressure DubaihPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	66	0.133

Surface pressure IstanbulhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	79	0.32

Surface pressure JohannesburghPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	41	0.195

Surface pressure LagoshPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	41	0.563

Surface pressure LondonhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	85	0.426

Surface pressure Los AngeleshPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	59	0.807

Surface pressure MadridhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	83	0.284

Surface pressure Mexico CityhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	86	0.348

Surface pressure MoscowhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	87	0.875

Surface pressure MumbaihPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	69	0.243

Surface pressure NairobihPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	41	0.266

Surface pressure New YorkhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	76	1.446

Surface pressure OslohPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	146	0.422

Surface pressure ParishPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	80	0.349

Surface pressure RomehPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	83	0.328

Surface pressure Sao PaulohPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	45	0.247

Surface pressure SingaporehPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	82	0.27

Surface pressure StockholmhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	0.251

Surface pressure SydneyhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	99	0.192

Surface pressure TokyohPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	83	0.277

Surface pressure TorontohPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	83	1.614

Surface pressure WarsawhPa · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	0.275

Temperature Bangkok°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	89	0.833

Temperature Beijing°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	69	1.08

Temperature Berlin°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	80	0.762

Temperature Bogota°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	81	0.984

Temperature Buenos Aires°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	76	0.488

Temperature Cairo°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	41	0.337

Temperature Chicago°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	68	1.303

Temperature Delhi°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	64	1.422

Temperature Dubai°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	86	0.501

Temperature Istanbul°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	77	0.188

Temperature Johannesburg°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	41	0.285

Temperature Lagos°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	43	0.486

Temperature London°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	81	0.781

Temperature Los Angeles°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	44	1.52

Temperature Madrid°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	0.863

Temperature Mexico City°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	80	1.071

Temperature Moscow°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	0.208

Temperature Mumbai°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	66	0.33

Temperature Nairobi°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	61	0.397

Temperature New York°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	59	0.641

Temperature Oslo°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	82	1.209

Temperature Paris°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	80	0.492

Temperature Rome°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	0.313

Temperature Sao Paulo°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	86	0.456

Temperature Singapore°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	86	0.233

Temperature Stockholm°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	102	0.575

Temperature Sydney°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	119	0.415

Temperature Tokyo°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	69	0.568

Temperature Toronto°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	85	1.442

Temperature Warsaw°C · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	80	0.72

Wind speed Bangkokkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	83	2.234

Wind speed Beijingkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	52	1.16

Wind speed Berlinkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	79	1.422

Wind speed Bogotakm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	85	1.885

Wind speed Buenos Aireskm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	41	2.18

Wind speed Cairokm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	53	0.47

Wind speed Chicagokm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	46	3.363

Wind speed Delhikm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	2.493

Wind speed Dubaikm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	81	2.189

Wind speed Istanbulkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	0.777

Wind speed Johannesburgkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	41	1.629

Wind speed Lagoskm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	41	2.517

Wind speed Londonkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	87	1.683

Wind speed Los Angeleskm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	64	1.881

Wind speed Madridkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	80	1.549

Wind speed Mexico Citykm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	80	2.01

Wind speed Moscowkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	40	0.66

Wind speed Mumbaikm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	69	3.967

Wind speed Nairobikm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	40	2.2

Wind speed New Yorkkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	45	3.324

Wind speed Oslokm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	190	2.678

Wind speed Pariskm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	1.164

Wind speed Romekm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	84	0.742

Wind speed Sao Paulokm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	45	0.851

Wind speed Singaporekm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	86	1.23

Wind speed Stockholmkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	83	1.464

Wind speed Sydneykm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	129	1.764

Wind speed Tokyokm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	45	0.689

Wind speed Torontokm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	79	3.949

Wind speed Warsawkm/h · lower is better

Predictor	Scored points	MAE
The source’s own forecast	87	1.28

Methodology: forecasts are captured at ingest, before the outcome can overwrite them. Scoring matches the nearest observation within 30 minutes of the target. Ingestion status.